基于改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的职业病预测研究

为了更准确地预测职业病，在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上，提出改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型，在传统的GM(1,1)模型中引入弱化算子，将紧邻均值与原始数据之间的线性假设改为非线性假设，提高曲线的拟合度。以2005—2014年的全国职业病例数为研究对象，进行数据拟合和预测分析，其中以2014年职业病例数作为验证数据，并利用后验差比值和小误差概率2个参数，检验该改进模型的预测精度。由应用实例的分析结果可知:在职业病发病趋势的预测方面，改进的非线性GM(1,1)模型的预测精度提高到一级，曲线拟合度较高，预测得到2015年的职业病例数为34 900例。     

基于微型无人机遥感数据的城市水环境信息提取初探

近年来,黑臭水体整治已经成为各级政府的重要工作内容。为更好地开展黑臭水体筛查和监管工作,提出基于多旋翼无人机搭载多光谱相机的遥感监测方案,尝试采用影像特征变换结合面向对象分类方法提取黑臭水体的遥感信息。结果表明:(1)无人机影像上地物具有更加丰富的色彩和纹理;(2)与主成分变换和纹理分析方法相比,光谱指数对典型地物具有较好的判别能力;(3)采用标准最邻近分类法提取城市水环境信息,能够获得较高分类精度。     

基于变权灰色云模型的江苏省水环境系统脆弱性评价

水环境系统脆弱性是水资源利用与生态环境研究的热点问题，通过研究水环境系统的内在机理，综合考虑影响水环境系统脆弱性的资源、环境、经济、社会等因素，借助驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）框架构建水环境系统脆弱性评价指标体系。在此基础上，构建基于变权灰色云模型的评价方法，对2004~2014年江苏省水环境系统脆弱性进行评价。结果表明：2004~2014年水环境系统脆弱性指数由47.056提高到63.210，脆弱性等级由“重度脆弱”演化为“中度脆弱”，并长期维持在“中度脆弱的”等级，2014年出现了向“轻度脆弱”状态转变的趋势。分析各个子系统对水环境系统脆弱性影响程度可知，影响子系统和响应子系统对江苏省水环境脆弱性系统的影响程度逐年增加；而压力子系统和管理子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响程度逐年下降；其它子系统对水环境系统脆弱性的影响维持在一定水平小幅度波动。     

煤与瓦斯共采在错层位巷道布置中的机理研究及应用构想

为了完善现有煤与瓦斯共采技术，创新煤与瓦斯共采方法，对错层位巷道布置下的煤与瓦斯共采系统展开研究，利用相似模拟试验，分析错层位巷道布置覆岩运动情况，预测其开采围岩裂隙发育和瓦斯运移形式，提出了创新煤与瓦斯共采技术构想。研究结果表明:采空区覆岩三带高度随接续工作面的增加而增大，相邻采空区垮落矸石压实区呈现“O-L-O”形变化，多个相邻采空区覆岩出现大“O”形圈裂隙带；相邻采空区内瓦斯可实现相互运移，大“O”形圈裂隙带内赋存大量瓦斯气体；研究提出了地面钻井抽采瓦斯、走向高位瓦斯抽采巷和外错尾巷穿层钻孔3种煤与瓦斯共采技术，比传统巷道布置情况下的煤与瓦斯共采技术在安全、经济等方面更具优势。     

简述排污许可制下火电行业现状及发展

实施排污许可制度,是强化排污者责任、提高固定污染源环境管理效能、改善环境质量的重要制度保障。火电行业作为典型的高架固定源,先行试点实施排污许可制度。通过分析火电行业发展和环保现状,结合排污许可管理要点,简述排污许可制对火电行业发展的影响。     

我国区域空气污染治理效率及其影响机制——基于超效率SBM模型和门槛回归模型

随着人民对美好生活需求的日益增长,政府空气污染治理的效率问题日益得到重视。本文从地方政府空气污染治理效率及其影响因素的视角入手,以全国30个省份为研究对象,运用超效率SBM模型测算2003—2015年各省级区域的空气污染治理效率。在此基础上,运用门槛回归模型分析政府空气污染治理效率的影响机制。研究表明:①地区间空气污染治理效率差异性较为显著。中部、西部空气污染治理效率整体呈下降趋势。东部和东北地区空气污染治理效率则上升比较平稳。②政策规划、碳源、污染物排放和环境治理投入表现出双重门槛特征,其中碳源对空气污染治理效率影响显著,而以碳为首的能源消费结构则主要对中部和西部空气污染治理效率产生影响。落后地区政府应注重产业升级,财政上应对碳税等税目进行征收,产业上应鼓励企业创新,并对落后企业进行倒逼升级。     

温室气体和空气污染物协同治理研究展望

温室气体和空气污染物的协同治理是一种双赢的策略。自协同效应的概念提出以来,大量研究对温室气体和大气污染之间的协同减排技术、措施、潜力等方面进行了评估。本研究回顾了协同治理理论的发展历程、典型案例以及重要的政策实践,在此基础上讨论了当前研究与实践的特点,并对未来研究提出了建议。典型案例涉及能源、交通、工业和居民部门,政策实践讨论了温室气体和空气污染协同治理政策的主要类型及其实施情况。从损失评估、协同机理、高精度排放清单及模拟等角度对未来促进协同治理的研究提出了方向建议。     

The place of nature in conservation conflicts

Conservation conflicts are gaining importance in contemporary conservation scholarship such that conservation may have entered a conflict hype. We attempted to uncover and deconstruct the normative assumptions behind such studies by raising several questions: what are conservation conflicts, what justifies the attention they receive, do conservation-conflict studies limit wildlife conservation, is scientific knowledge stacked against wildlife in conservation conflicts, do conservation-conflict studies adopt a specific view of democracy, can laws be used to force conservation outcomes, why is flexibility needed in managing conservation conflicts, can conservation conflicts be managed by promoting tolerance, and who needs to compromise in conservation conflicts? We suggest that many of the intellectual premises in the field may defang conservation and prevent it from truly addressing the current conservation crisis as it accelerates. By framing conservation conflicts as conflicts between people about wildlife or nature, the field insidiously transfers guilt, whereby human activities are no longer blamed for causing species decline and extinctions but conservation is instead blamed for causing social conflicts. When the focus is on mitigating social conflicts without limiting in any powerful way human activities damaging to nature, conservation-conflict studies risk keeping conservation within the limits of human activities, instead of keeping human activities within the limits of nature. For conservation to successfully stop the biodiversity crisis, we suggest the alternative goal of recognizing nature's right to existence to maintenance of ecological functions and evolutionary processes. Nature being a rights bearer or legal person would imply its needs must be explicitly taken into account in conflict adjudication. If, even in conservation, nature's interests come second to human interests, it may be no surprise that conservation cannot succeed.     

Determination of 27 pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) in water: The benefit of isotope dilution

• Isotope dilution method was developed for the determination of 27 PPCPs in water. • The established method was successfully applied to different types of water samples. • The correction effect of corresponding 27 ILSs over 70 d was investigated. • Benefit of isotopic dilution method was illustrated for three examples. Pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) are a unique group of emerging and non-persistent contaminants. In this study, 27 PPCPs in various water samples were extracted by solid phase extraction (SPE), and determined by isotope dilution method using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem triple quadruple mass spectrometer (LC-MS/MS). A total of 27 isotopically labeled standards (ILSs) were applied to correct the concentration of PPCPs in spiked ultrapure water, drinking water, river, effluent and influent sewage. The corrected recoveries were 73%–122% with the relative standard deviation (RSD)<16%, except for acetaminophen. The matrix effect for all kinds of water samples was<22% and the method quantitation limits (MQLs) were 0.45–8.6 ng/L. The developed method was successfully applied on environmental water samples. The SPE extracts of spiked ultrapure water, drinking water, river and wastewater effluent were stored for 70 days, and the ILSs-corrected recoveries of 27 PPCPs were obtained to evaluate the correction ability of ILSs in the presence of variety interferences. The recoveries of 27 PPCPs over 70 days were within the scope of 72%–140% with the recovery variation<37% in all cases. The isotope dilution method seems to be of benefit when the extract has to be stored for long time before the instrument analysis.     

社会资本对山区居民山洪灾害应急避险能力的影响研究*

为研究社会资本对山区居民应急避险能力的影响，在广泛调研的基础上采用结构方程模型分析社会资本与山区居民应急避险能力各要素之间的作用关系。结果表明:个人网络对避险知识和避险意识有显著的正向影响，对避险行为影响不显著；信任与避险知识和避险意识呈显著的正向影响，而与避险行为呈反向影响，但信任可以通过避险知识和避险意识间接正向影响避险行为；互惠对避险知识影响不显著，但互惠与避险意识和避险行为存在显著的正向关系；避险知识和避险意识对避险行为呈显著正向影响，其中避险意识对避险行为影响更为显著。因此可以通过增加山区居民社会资本的方式提高山区居民山洪灾害应急避险能力。